Head to head

Any pairing, estimated from 2026/27 model parameters fitted on prior seasons only.

Next fixtures

As published by the SPFL.

Sat 21 Nov 15:00 Kilmarnock v Aberdeen estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by Kilmarnock's defensive strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Kilmarnock.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.1 -1.5 -5.5
Kilmarnock's defence -0.237 -5.9 -2.3 +8.2
Aberdeen's defence +0.125 -4.0 +0.8 +3.1
Kilmarnock's attack -0.029 -0.9 +0.2 +0.7
Aberdeen's attack +0.003 -0.1 -0.0 +0.1
Total — 31.8% 26.1% 42.2%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 21 Nov 15:00 Hibernian v Dundee United estimate

Hibernian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.2 -5.7
Dundee United's attack +0.089 -2.2 -0.6 +2.8
Dundee United's defence -0.044 +1.5 -0.4 -1.1
Hibernian's attack +0.040 +1.4 -0.4 -1.0
Hibernian's defence -0.007 -0.2 -0.0 +0.2
Total — 44.0% 25.2% 30.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 21 Nov 15:00 Celtic v St Mirren estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.630 +24.3 -12.1 -12.2
Celtic's defence +0.550 +9.9 -0.4 -9.5
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -4.0 -4.1
St Mirren's attack -0.212 +3.8 -0.0 -3.8
St Mirren's defence -0.083 +3.0 -1.5 -1.5
Total — 84.9% 10.8% 4.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 21 Nov 15:00 Falkirk v St Johnstone estimate

Falkirk are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.7 -5.2
Falkirk's defence +0.116 +2.7 +0.6 -3.3
St Johnstone's attack -0.096 +2.2 +0.5 -2.8
Falkirk's attack -0.038 -1.3 +0.5 +0.9
St Johnstone's defence -0.018 +0.6 -0.2 -0.4
Total — 47.6% 27.6% 24.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 21 Nov 17:45 Dundee v Heart of Midlothian estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Dundee.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.291 -7.6 -2.7 +10.3
Home advantage +0.223 +7.2 -1.5 -5.8
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.084 -2.7 +0.6 +2.2
Dundee's attack +0.045 +1.5 -0.3 -1.2
Dundee's defence -0.050 -1.3 -0.5 +1.8
Total — 32.7% 24.5% 42.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 21 Nov 20:00 Motherwell v Rangers estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 6 percentage points to Motherwell.

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Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' defence +0.489 -12.6 +1.2 +11.5
Rangers' attack +0.469 -11.1 -6.7 +17.9
Home advantage +0.223 +5.8 -0.6 -5.1
Motherwell's defence -0.103 -2.4 -1.5 +3.9
Motherwell's attack +0.039 +1.0 -0.1 -0.9
Total — 16.2% 21.0% 62.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Tue 24 Nov 19:45 Hibernian v Dundee estimate

Hibernian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.3 -5.6
Dundee's defence -0.050 +1.8 -0.5 -1.3
Hibernian's attack +0.040 +1.4 -0.4 -1.0
Dundee's attack +0.045 -1.1 -0.3 +1.4
Hibernian's defence -0.007 -0.2 -0.0 +0.2
Total — 45.4% 25.3% 29.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Tue 24 Nov 20:00 Rangers v Aberdeen estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' attack +0.469 +17.9 -7.7 -10.2
Rangers' defence +0.489 +10.5 +0.7 -11.2
Home advantage +0.223 +8.4 -3.6 -4.8
Aberdeen's defence +0.125 -4.6 +2.0 +2.6
Aberdeen's attack +0.003 -0.1 -0.0 +0.1
Total — 67.7% 20.2% 12.1%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 28 Nov 15:00 Dundee United v St Johnstone estimate

Dundee United are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.0 -2.5 -5.5
Dundee United's attack +0.089 +3.2 -1.0 -2.2
St Johnstone's attack -0.096 +2.4 +0.5 -2.9
Dundee United's defence -0.044 -1.1 -0.2 +1.3
St Johnstone's defence -0.018 +0.6 -0.2 -0.4
Total — 48.7% 25.4% 25.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 28 Nov 15:00 Aberdeen v Dundee estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.5 -5.4
Aberdeen's defence +0.125 +3.0 +0.7 -3.7
Dundee's defence -0.050 +1.8 -0.6 -1.2
Dundee's attack +0.045 -1.1 -0.3 +1.4
Aberdeen's attack +0.003 +0.1 -0.0 -0.1
Total — 47.3% 26.2% 26.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

PP marks a postponed fixture, as the SPFL's own list does. It is shown under the date it was scheduled for, because the source has not yet given it a new one. It is still counted in the season forecast — it will be played, and when it is played does not change a season-end distribution.

Estimate any pairing

Including pairings the schedule has not yet reached.

at home v
Kilmarnock 36.2%
Draw 27.4%
Aberdeen 36.4%

Expected score 1.21 – 1.22 — average goals, not a predicted scoreline

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by their defensive strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Kilmarnock.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.3 -1.9 -5.4
Aberdeen's defence +0.131 -4.3 +1.1 +3.2
Kilmarnock's defence -0.046 -1.1 -0.4 +1.5
Aberdeen's attack +0.041 -1.0 -0.3 +1.3
Kilmarnock's attack -0.009 -0.3 +0.1 +0.2
Total — 36.2% 27.4% 36.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Most likely scorelines

1–1 13.0%
0–1 10.7%
1–0 10.6%
0–0 8.8%
1–2 7.9%

Model agreement

ModelHome DrawAway
Poisson 36.2% 27.4% 36.4%
Dixon-Coles 36.0% 27.7% 36.3%
Elo 40.1% 28.0% 31.9%

Elo 1389 v 1409 (-21 before home advantage)

Three models are shown rather than one because agreement between them is itself information. Where they diverge, the difference is a real disagreement about this pairing, not noise to be averaged away.