Head to head

Any pairing, estimated from 2026/27 model parameters fitted on prior seasons only.

Next fixtures

As published by the SPFL.

Sat 31 Oct 15:00 Kilmarnock v St Johnstone estimate

Kilmarnock are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.5 -2.0 -5.6
Kilmarnock's defence -0.224 -5.6 -1.7 +7.3
St Johnstone's attack -0.117 +2.9 +0.9 -3.8
Kilmarnock's attack -0.045 -1.5 +0.4 +1.1
St Johnstone's defence -0.006 +0.2 -0.0 -0.1
Total — 39.1% 26.4% 34.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 31 Oct 15:00 Motherwell v St Mirren estimate

Motherwell are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.1 -2.6 -5.5
St Mirren's attack -0.190 +4.7 +0.9 -5.6
St Mirren's defence -0.096 +3.5 -1.1 -2.3
Motherwell's defence -0.122 -3.0 -0.6 +3.6
Motherwell's attack +0.051 +1.9 -0.6 -1.3
Total — 50.7% 24.8% 24.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 31 Oct PP Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Dundee United.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.291 -7.6 -2.5 +10.2
Home advantage +0.223 +7.4 -1.5 -5.8
Dundee United's attack +0.089 +2.9 -0.6 -2.3
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.084 -2.8 +0.6 +2.2
Dundee United's defence -0.044 -1.1 -0.4 +1.5
Total — 34.3% 24.4% 41.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 01 Nov 13:00 Falkirk v Celtic estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to Falkirk.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.667 -14.9 -10.7 +25.5
Celtic's defence +0.581 -13.5 +1.0 +12.5
Home advantage +0.223 +5.3 -0.5 -4.7
Falkirk's attack -0.066 -1.5 +0.1 +1.4
Falkirk's defence +0.072 +1.5 +1.1 -2.6
Total — 12.5% 19.9% 67.7%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 07 Nov 15:00 Dundee United v Motherwell estimate

Dundee United are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -2.4 -5.8
Motherwell's defence -0.122 +4.5 -1.3 -3.1
Dundee United's attack +0.089 +3.2 -1.0 -2.3
Motherwell's attack +0.051 -1.3 -0.3 +1.6
Dundee United's defence -0.044 -1.1 -0.2 +1.4
Total — 49.0% 23.7% 27.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 07 Nov 15:00 St Johnstone v Dundee estimate

St Johnstone are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.5 -2.1 -5.5
St Johnstone's attack -0.117 -3.9 +1.1 +2.9
Dundee's defence -0.050 +1.7 -0.5 -1.2
Dundee's attack +0.045 -1.1 -0.3 +1.5
St Johnstone's defence -0.006 -0.1 -0.0 +0.2
Total — 39.6% 27.0% 33.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 07 Nov 17:45 Aberdeen v Hibernian estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.8 -2.5 -5.4
Aberdeen's defence +0.125 +3.0 +0.7 -3.7
Hibernian's attack +0.040 -1.0 -0.2 +1.2
Hibernian's defence -0.007 +0.3 -0.1 -0.2
Aberdeen's attack +0.003 +0.1 -0.0 -0.1
Total — 45.8% 26.8% 27.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 07 Nov 20:00 St Mirren v Rangers estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to St Mirren.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' defence +0.489 -11.4 +0.8 +10.6
Rangers' attack +0.469 -10.4 -7.6 +17.9
Home advantage +0.223 +5.3 -0.5 -4.8
St Mirren's attack -0.190 -4.5 +0.4 +4.1
St Mirren's defence -0.096 -2.1 -1.5 +3.6
Total — 12.6% 20.4% 67.0%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 08 Nov 15:00 Heart of Midlothian v Falkirk estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.291 +10.9 -3.8 -7.0
Home advantage +0.223 +8.3 -2.9 -5.4
Falkirk's defence +0.072 -2.7 +0.9 +1.7
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.084 +2.0 +0.3 -2.3
Falkirk's attack -0.066 +1.6 +0.2 -1.8
Total — 55.7% 23.6% 20.7%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 08 Nov 16:00 Celtic v Kilmarnock estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.667 +25.7 -12.5 -13.2
Celtic's defence +0.581 +10.5 -0.6 -9.9
Kilmarnock's defence -0.224 +8.1 -3.9 -4.2
Home advantage +0.223 +8.0 -3.9 -4.2
Kilmarnock's attack -0.045 +0.8 -0.0 -0.8
Total — 88.7% 7.9% 3.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

PP marks a postponed fixture, as the SPFL's own list does. It is shown under the date it was scheduled for, because the source has not yet given it a new one. It is still counted in the season forecast — it will be played, and when it is played does not change a season-end distribution.

Estimate any pairing

Including pairings the schedule has not yet reached.

at home v
Heart of Midlothian 54.3%
Draw 25.2%
Falkirk 20.5%

Expected score 1.59 – 0.87 — average goals, not a predicted scoreline

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -3.0 -5.2
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.103 +3.8 -1.4 -2.4
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.158 +3.7 +0.6 -4.3
Falkirk's attack -0.098 +2.3 +0.4 -2.7
Falkirk's defence -0.023 +0.8 -0.3 -0.5
Total — 54.3% 25.2% 20.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Most likely scorelines

1–0 13.7%
1–1 11.8%
2–0 10.8%
2–1 9.4%
0–0 8.6%

Model agreement

ModelHome DrawAway
Poisson 54.3% 25.2% 20.5%
Dixon-Coles 54.2% 25.5% 20.3%
Elo 65.3% 20.4% 14.3%

Elo 1641 v 1454 (+187 before home advantage)

Three models are shown rather than one because agreement between them is itself information. Where they diverge, the difference is a real disagreement about this pairing, not noise to be averaged away.