Head to head

Any pairing, estimated from 2026/27 model parameters fitted on prior seasons only.

Next fixtures

As published by the SPFL.

Sun 25 Oct 12:00 Hibernian v Celtic estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to Hibernian.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.685 -15.6 -11.0 +26.6
Celtic's defence +0.620 -14.4 +0.7 +13.6
Home advantage +0.223 +5.2 -0.5 -4.8
Hibernian's attack +0.041 +1.0 -0.1 -0.9
Hibernian's defence -0.013 -0.3 -0.2 +0.5
Total — 11.5% 17.9% 70.6%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 25 Oct 14:00 Motherwell v Heart of Midlothian estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Motherwell.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.3 -1.5 -5.9
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.267 -7.0 -2.4 +9.4
Motherwell's defence -0.096 -2.5 -0.9 +3.4
Motherwell's attack +0.060 +2.0 -0.4 -1.6
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.060 -2.0 +0.4 +1.6
Total — 33.3% 24.1% 42.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 St Johnstone v Motherwell estimate

St Johnstone are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.6 -2.1 -5.5
St Johnstone's attack -0.133 -4.5 +1.3 +3.3
Motherwell's defence -0.096 +3.3 -0.9 -2.4
Motherwell's attack +0.060 -1.5 -0.4 +1.9
St Johnstone's defence +0.011 +0.3 +0.1 -0.4
Total — 40.7% 26.7% 32.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 Dundee v Kilmarnock estimate

Dundee are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -2.6 -5.7
Kilmarnock's defence -0.200 +7.4 -2.3 -5.1
Dundee's defence -0.054 -1.4 -0.2 +1.6
Kilmarnock's attack -0.039 +1.0 +0.2 -1.2
Dundee's attack +0.014 +0.5 -0.2 -0.4
Total — 51.3% 23.7% 25.0%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 Aberdeen v Falkirk estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.7 -5.2
Aberdeen's defence +0.127 +3.0 +0.7 -3.6
Falkirk's attack -0.068 +1.6 +0.4 -1.9
Falkirk's defence +0.041 -1.4 +0.5 +1.0
Aberdeen's attack +0.036 +1.3 -0.4 -0.8
Total — 47.8% 27.3% 24.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 St Mirren v Hibernian estimate

Hibernian are favoured mainly by St Mirren's attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to St Mirren.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.1 -1.7 -5.4
St Mirren's attack -0.187 -6.0 +1.4 +4.6
St Mirren's defence -0.103 -2.5 -0.9 +3.5
Hibernian's attack +0.041 -1.0 -0.4 +1.4
Hibernian's defence -0.013 +0.4 -0.1 -0.3
Total — 33.6% 27.2% 39.2%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 Celtic v Dundee United estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.685 +26.8 -12.5 -14.3
Celtic's defence +0.620 +12.0 -0.4 -11.6
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -3.8 -4.4
Dundee United's defence -0.061 +2.2 -1.0 -1.2
Dundee United's attack +0.060 -1.2 -0.0 +1.2
Total — 83.7% 11.0% 5.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 20:00 Heart of Midlothian v Rangers estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Heart of Midlothian.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' defence +0.516 -15.3 +2.6 +12.7
Rangers' attack +0.459 -11.3 -5.3 +16.6
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.267 +7.9 -1.4 -6.5
Home advantage +0.223 +6.6 -1.2 -5.4
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.060 +1.4 +0.7 -2.1
Total — 24.9% 24.3% 50.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 31 Oct 15:00 Kilmarnock v St Johnstone estimate

Kilmarnock are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.5 -2.0 -5.5
Kilmarnock's defence -0.200 -4.9 -1.5 +6.4
St Johnstone's attack -0.133 +3.3 +1.0 -4.3
Kilmarnock's attack -0.039 -1.3 +0.4 +1.0
St Johnstone's defence +0.011 -0.4 +0.1 +0.3
Total — 39.8% 26.8% 33.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 31 Oct 15:00 Motherwell v St Mirren estimate

Motherwell are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -2.7 -5.5
St Mirren's attack -0.187 +4.6 +0.8 -5.4
St Mirren's defence -0.103 +3.8 -1.3 -2.5
Motherwell's defence -0.096 -2.3 -0.4 +2.8
Motherwell's attack +0.060 +2.2 -0.7 -1.5
Total — 52.0% 24.5% 23.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

PP marks a postponed fixture, as the SPFL's own list does. It is shown under the date it was scheduled for, because the source has not yet given it a new one. It is still counted in the season forecast — it will be played, and when it is played does not change a season-end distribution.

Estimate any pairing

Including pairings the schedule has not yet reached.

at home v
Heart of Midlothian 22.0%
Draw 24.6%
Rangers 53.4%

Expected score 0.96 – 1.64 — average goals, not a predicted scoreline

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 6 percentage points to Heart of Midlothian.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' defence +0.481 -13.5 +2.1 +11.4
Rangers' attack +0.542 -12.9 -6.8 +19.7
Home advantage +0.223 +6.2 -1.0 -5.2
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.158 +3.7 +2.0 -5.7
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.103 +2.9 -0.5 -2.4
Total — 22.0% 24.6% 53.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Most likely scorelines

0–1 12.2%
1–1 11.7%
0–2 10.0%
1–2 9.6%
0–0 7.4%

Model agreement

ModelHome DrawAway
Poisson 22.0% 24.6% 53.4%
Dixon-Coles 21.9% 24.9% 53.3%
Elo 33.1% 28.1% 38.8%

Elo 1631 v 1712 (-82 before home advantage)

Three models are shown rather than one because agreement between them is itself information. Where they diverge, the difference is a real disagreement about this pairing, not noise to be averaged away.