Head to head

Any pairing, estimated from 2026/27 model parameters fitted on prior seasons only.

Next fixtures

As published by the SPFL.

Sun 18 Oct 15:00 Celtic v Heart of Midlothian estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.593 +22.8 -9.3 -13.4
Celtic's defence +0.629 +13.9 +0.9 -14.8
Home advantage +0.223 +8.4 -3.5 -4.9
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.166 -6.1 +2.5 +3.6
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.264 -5.7 -0.6 +6.3
Total — 68.8% 18.9% 12.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 24 Oct 15:00 Dundee United v Aberdeen estimate

Dundee United are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 7 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.3 -1.9 -5.4
Aberdeen's defence +0.167 -5.5 +1.4 +4.1
Dundee United's defence -0.044 -1.1 -0.4 +1.4
Dundee United's attack +0.022 +0.7 -0.2 -0.5
Aberdeen's attack +0.018 -0.4 -0.1 +0.6
Total — 36.6% 27.7% 35.7%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 24 Oct 15:00 Rangers v St Johnstone estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' attack +0.419 +16.0 -7.3 -8.8
Rangers' defence +0.501 +10.2 +0.4 -10.7
Home advantage +0.223 +8.4 -3.8 -4.6
St Johnstone's attack -0.118 +2.4 +0.2 -2.6
St Johnstone's defence +0.049 -1.8 +0.8 +1.0
Total — 70.9% 19.1% 10.0%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 24 Oct 15:00 St Mirren v Dundee estimate

Dundee are favoured mainly by St Mirren's attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to St Mirren.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.2 -1.7 -5.4
St Mirren's attack -0.203 -6.5 +1.6 +4.9
St Mirren's defence -0.107 -2.6 -0.9 +3.6
Dundee's defence -0.034 +1.1 -0.3 -0.8
Dundee's attack +0.018 -0.4 -0.2 +0.6
Total — 34.3% 27.3% 38.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 24 Oct 15:00 Falkirk v Kilmarnock estimate

Falkirk are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.4 -5.5
Kilmarnock's defence -0.172 +6.1 -1.9 -4.2
Falkirk's attack -0.107 -3.8 +1.2 +2.6
Falkirk's defence +0.016 +0.4 +0.1 -0.5
Kilmarnock's attack -0.012 +0.3 +0.1 -0.4
Total — 46.5% 25.9% 27.6%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 25 Oct 12:00 Hibernian v Celtic estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to Hibernian.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's defence +0.629 -15.1 +1.1 +14.0
Celtic's attack +0.593 -13.5 -9.2 +22.7
Home advantage +0.223 +5.4 -0.6 -4.8
Hibernian's attack +0.041 +1.0 -0.1 -0.9
Hibernian's defence -0.013 -0.3 -0.2 +0.5
Total — 13.1% 19.8% 67.1%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 25 Oct 14:00 Motherwell v Heart of Midlothian estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Motherwell.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.0 -1.3 -5.7
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.264 -6.8 -2.6 +9.4
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.166 -5.2 +1.0 +4.3
Motherwell's defence -0.096 -2.5 -1.0 +3.4
Motherwell's attack +0.060 +1.9 -0.4 -1.5
Total — 30.0% 24.6% 45.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 Dundee v Kilmarnock estimate

Dundee are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -2.5 -5.7
Kilmarnock's defence -0.172 +6.3 -1.9 -4.4
Dundee's defence -0.034 -0.9 -0.2 +1.0
Dundee's attack +0.018 +0.7 -0.2 -0.5
Kilmarnock's attack -0.012 +0.3 +0.1 -0.4
Total — 50.2% 24.1% 25.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 Celtic v Dundee United estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.593 +23.1 -10.8 -12.3
Celtic's defence +0.629 +12.4 -0.3 -12.1
Home advantage +0.223 +8.4 -3.9 -4.4
Dundee United's defence -0.044 +1.6 -0.8 -0.9
Dundee United's attack +0.022 -0.4 -0.0 +0.4
Total — 80.6% 13.1% 6.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Wed 28 Oct 19:45 Aberdeen v Falkirk estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.9 -2.8 -5.1
Aberdeen's defence +0.167 +3.8 +0.8 -4.7
Falkirk's attack -0.107 +2.4 +0.5 -3.0
Aberdeen's attack +0.018 +0.6 -0.2 -0.4
Falkirk's defence +0.016 -0.6 +0.2 +0.4
Total — 49.8% 27.4% 22.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

PP marks a postponed fixture, as the SPFL's own list does. It is shown under the date it was scheduled for, because the source has not yet given it a new one. It is still counted in the season forecast — it will be played, and when it is played does not change a season-end distribution.

Estimate any pairing

Including pairings the schedule has not yet reached.

at home v
Celtic 82.4%
Draw 11.8%
Dundee United 5.8%

Expected score 2.84 – 0.64 — average goals, not a predicted scoreline

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.647 +25.3 -11.8 -13.5
Celtic's defence +0.581 +11.4 -0.3 -11.1
Home advantage +0.223 +8.3 -3.9 -4.4
Dundee United's defence -0.060 +2.2 -1.0 -1.2
Dundee United's attack +0.024 -0.5 -0.0 +0.5
Total — 82.4% 11.8% 5.8%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Most likely scorelines

2–0 12.4%
3–0 11.8%
1–0 8.8%
4–0 8.3%
2–1 8.0%

Model agreement

ModelHome DrawAway
Poisson 82.4% 11.8% 5.8%
Dixon-Coles 82.3% 12.0% 5.7%
Elo 79.5% 13.0% 7.5%

Elo 1772 v 1441 (+331 before home advantage)

Three models are shown rather than one because agreement between them is itself information. Where they diverge, the difference is a real disagreement about this pairing, not noise to be averaged away.